Edgar Berlanga’s got a good record, and he’s a marketable fighter. But even when he had some momentum he didn’t seem the right next challenger for the super middleweight title.

He’s never produced a top-quality performance against an opponent considered capable of testing him. Signing with Matchroom put him on course to fight Saul “Canelo” Alvarez on Saturday – Alvarez is no longer defending the IBF title he held when Berlanga was first spoken about as a likely opponent – but he became a free agent after Top Rank appeared to lose patience with him.

He was still with Top Rank when he had momentum, but Top Rank’s model often involves pursuing knockouts by matching their fighters with smaller opponents. The matchmaking, more than raw punch power, looked the main reason he was recording the knockouts he was. But he does have some boxing abilities and some physical strengths – what held him back was him buying into his own hype. 

When he couldn’t knock opponents out, he didn’t know how to deal with them, which made me question his potential. It’s in his last two fights, against Jason Quigley and Padraig McCrory – mid, not top-level, contenders – and back with his trainer Marc Ferrait that he’s made progress and improvements by proving he can more effectively fight over the distance and stick to a game plan. 

But does that mean he deserves to fight Canelo? It’s a massive jump. Physically, we increasingly know he has talent. But he’s yet to prove he has what he requires mentally to stay competitive in a fight of that magnitude against an opponent capable of resisting him. 

Since Canelo fought Dmitry Bivol, Canelo’s picked opponents he expects to beat, so he already considers himself to have the mental edge. But on their press tour, the aggressive Berlanga tried to gain an upper hand, mentally. If you compare his credentials with Jaime Munguia, Canelo’s picked an easier fight than in May. On paper, Berlanga’s the easiest fight Canelo could have entered. But Berlanga’s also got a lot to prove and won’t just be happy to turn up and get paid. Canelo’s clearly declining, which gives Berlanga an opportunity to not only pull off a major upset, but, in his first fight at world-class level, to earn a monster win for his own career. 

When Matchroom signed Berlanga, it looked like they were doing so because they saw his value as a pawn in the rich game surrounding Canelo. Berlanga doesn’t necessarily need to win – as long as he makes life difficult for Canelo in the ring, and shows that he deserves to be in the fight, people will forget about the fact Canelo’s fading and remember it as the fight when Berlanga showed up, which in turn will keep him in contention for other big fights. Canelo’s not at his best and he’s not hungry, which is why he chose to fight Berlanga in the first place – Berlanga has the opportunity to change his career, and therefore his life.

Munguia started impressively against Canelo in May, but we then saw Canelo again attempt to pressure his less-fancied opponent mentally, without trying to throw too many punches – and that pressure can lead to his opponents over-fighting. Munguia over-fought, punched himself out, and had nothing left to resist Canelo’s increasing output. But he had his moment before he punched himself out – and, because Canelo presents opportunities, Berlanga can do the same.

Just because Canelo can fight whoever he wants doesn’t mean that he should be allowed to. He still has three of the four 168lbs titles; with the help of the sanctioning bodies he’s shamelessly holding the division hostage. Which is partly why I’m trying to stress that Berlanga can only be judged as an opponent by his merits on paper (and, on paper, he’s a very weak opponent). We regardless know that he’s a hungry opponent – which can’t be said about the accomplished 40-year-old Gennady Golovkin, who Canelo fought in 2022 in the fight after losing to Bivol – and he might prove he can fight like it throughout. 

The game plan doesn’t need to change for Canelo. By applying his mental pressure, and gradually walking Berlanga down and staying in front of him and using his power, he’ll give Berlanga his biggest test.

Against that, Berlanga needs to be consistently active. He needs to not let Canelo get too close to him too regularly, and on the occasions he does he needs to make Canelo pay. He either needs to maintain a high pace or use his height to beat Canelo to the jab. 

If Berlanga – a more marketable opponent than William Scull, the mandatory challenger to the IBF title – doesn’t show enough hunger in the ring when he realises the difficulty and level that’s in front of him, it could be a short night. He could lose inside six rounds. If he fights with hunger, and therefore with a willingness to execute, regardless of what he’s confronted with, he could go the distance. 

Even by the standards of Canelo, there’s been a lot of speculation about who his opponent could be in May. Terence Crawford would be the highest-profile next fight. I could also see him fighting Chris Eubank Jr, or Zhanibek Alimkhanuly, who are both middleweights. The fights I can’t see him taking are Bivol, David Benavidez or David Morrell. I don’t believe he still wants to fight the elite. More than ever, he wants the highest reward for the least risk.