The promise of violence is always part of the allure of boxing.

Sometimes the promise is more sincere. Saturday night (ESPN, 10 PM EST), it’s hard to imagine a dull affair as a pair of Mexican warriors lace them up for a title at junior lightweight.

Oscar Valdez, a two-time Olympian and two-division titlist, is looking to win his second title in the division with a single win since a lopsided defeat to Shakur Stevenson. Emanuel Navarrete, a titlist in three divisions, is coming off one of his toughest fights. Navarrete came off the floor to stop Liam Wilson in his debut at 130 pounds and now tests his mettle against arguably the best opponent of his career.

Both men can be touched. Both men land heavy leather. The bell will sound and violence will ensue. 

Let’s get into it. 

Stats and Stakes

Oscar Valdez 

Age: 32

Title: None

Previous Titles: WBO Featherweight (2016-19, 6 Defenses); WBC Super Featherweight (2021-22, 1 Defense)

Height: 5’5 ½   

Weight: 129 ¾ lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: Nogales, Sonora, Mexico

Record: 31-1, 23 KO

Press Rankings: #1 (TBRB, Ring, ESPN), #5 (BoxRec)

Record in Major Title Fights: 9-1, 4 KO

Last Five Opponents: 116-11-1 (.910)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Evgeny Gradovich TKO4; Scott Quigg UD12; Miguel Berchelt KO10; Shakur Stevenson L12

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: None

Vs.

Emanuel Navarrete 

Age: 28

Title: WBO Junior Lightweight (2023-Present, 1st Attempted Defense) 

Previous Titles: WBO Junior Featherweight (2018-20, 5 Defenses); WBO Featherweight (2020-23, 3 Defenses)

Height: 5’7   

Weight: 130 lbs.

Stance: Orthodox

Hails from: San Juan Zitlaltepec, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Record: 37-1, 30 KO

Press Rankings: #2 (BoxRec, ESPN), #9 (TBRB),  

Record in Major Title Fights: 11-0, 8 KO

Last Five Opponents: 100-6-2 (.935)

Notable Outcomes, TBRB and/or Ring Rated Foes: Isaac Dogboe UD12, TKO12; Ruben Villa UD12; Joet Gonzalez UD12

Additional Current/Former Titlists Faced: None

The Pick: Valdez’s loss to Stevenson, wide as it was, does little to inform the action in this one. The shorter, more compact Valdez will have to find a way to get inside the longer arms of the taller Navarrete to win. Navarrete has shown that he can use those long arms to beat shorter fighters to the punch, making odd angles and wisely timed attacks work for him. 

In some ways, the styles here could end up resembling what fans got in the Antonio Margarito-Miguel Cotto fights. This time around, the shorter favorite won’t need two tries to win. Navarrete is fun television but he’s been very carefully managed since stunning Dogboe. Valdez has better experience, against better opposition, and the tools to win. Valdez’s explosive left hook is going to connect and Navarrete’s defensive liabilities should prove too costly. The pick is Valdez to win, potentially by late stoppage.  

Additional Weekend Picks

Anthony Joshua KO Robert Helenius

Emmanuel Rodriguez Dec. Melvin Lopez

Rold Picks 2023: 24-6

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene, a founding member of the Transnational Boxing Rankings Board, a member of the International Boxing Research Organization, and a member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com