Leo Santa Cruz-Abner Mares: BScene Staff Predictions

By Jake Donovan

Boxing fans and media like have eagerly awaited the long-awaited featherweight showdown between Abner Mares and Leo Santa Cruz. So, too, have the fighters themselves, as they were both already within the 126 lb. contracted weight prior to the weigh-in.

Naturally, both fighters easily made weight ahead of their scheduled 12-round clash Saturday evening at Staples Center in Los Angeles, California. Mares came in at a ripped 125.4 lbs., while Santa Cruz weighed 124.8 lbs., barely heavier than his last fight despite this being his first scheduled fight at the full featherweight limit.

ESPN will air the fight live in primetime, beginning at 10:00 p.m. ET/7:00 p.m. PT, as part of the network’s latest installment of the Premier Boxing Champions (PBC) series.

Santa Cruz (31-0-1, 17KOs) rose to prominence beginning with his June '12 bantamweight title win over Vusi Malinga. The all-action pressure fighter brawled his way into the hearts of boxing fans thanks to his tireless workrate and active schedule.

Momentum was slowly building towards a planned showdown with Mares (29-1-1, 15KOs), who at his peak was an undefeated fighter with titles claimed in three weight classes. Dating back to his 12-round draw with Yhonny Perez, the road on which Mares embarked was nearly unrivaled, posting wins over Vic Darchinyan, Joseph Agbeko (twice), Eric Morel, Anslemo Moreno and Daniel Ponce de Leon. 

Had both won their respective bouts on the same Aug. '13 show, it's possible this matchup could have taken place much sooner. Santa Cruz did his part, icing Victor Terrazas in three rounds to claim a super bantamweight title, which he still possesses (more or less) to this day.

Mares, however, fell miserably short as he suffered a shocking 1st round knockout loss to a resurgent Jhonny Gonzalez in what went down as the 2013 Upset of the Year.

Neither fighter has lit the boxing world afire since that night. Santa Cruz' competition level has declined, to the point of drawing stark criticism and his combat readiness called into question despite having remained unbeaten.

Mares has won three straight, but has yet to prove that he has all the way recovered from the lone loss of his career. Perhaps it takes a certain opponent to bring out the best in him, which we will find out on Saturday night.

Read on to see how the staff at BoxingScene.com believes the highly anticipated featherweight clash plays out.

BOXINGSCENE.COM STAFF PREDICTIONS: LEO SANTA CRUZ vs. ABNER MARES

Ryan Burton (Mares UD): I expect a competitive fight but I think that Santa Cruz's lack of top competition the past couple years could be his downfall as he needs to get "up" for this fight as train in a way he hasn't had to in a while. I expect an extremely motivated Mares, who pushed for this fight, to put on one of the best performances of his career.

Jake Donovan (Mares Dec): Santa Cruz was once among the hottest stars on the rise, but I believe missed his chance at becoming something special by failing to maximize his talents in the 122 lb. division. Mares may not be the same fighter he once when he was among the best in the world as an unbeaten champ over three weight classes, but I believe a reincarnation of sorts will take place. A boxing match early becomes a slugfest late (despite the perception that Mares is more reserved these days), with Mares edging it in a fight that can go either way.

Michael Gibbons (Mares SD): Santa Cruz' previous opposition or lack thereof will cause him to suffer his first setback as a pro.

David Greisman (Mares Dec): This is a tough pick, which is one reason why we've wanted Mares and Santa Cruz to fight for some time. We've seen Mares lose, while Santa Cruz is still undefeated. Both men have wasted time against lower-tier opposition in recent years. I think Santa Cruz can be even better than we've seen. But I also think that challenge will awaken the Mares we've seen before, especially now that Mares is in his second fight back with his old trainer. There may be shaky moments, but the guy who succeeded against tough opposition several years ago will take a close decision over Leo Santa Cruz.

Peter Lim (Mares UD): There couldn't be two top-shelf pugilists more evenly matched as these two Mexican-American firecrackers. But Mares' superior level of competition will ultimately tip the balance; he has fought and defeated the likes of Vic Darchinyan, Joseph Agbeko (twice), Eric Morel and Daniel Ponce De Leon (twice). Mares will adjust to Santa Cruz's style more effectively than vice-versa to win a close but unanimous decision in the 116-112 to 115-113 range.

Takahiro Onaga (Santa Cruz TKO10): This fight sadly brewed too long and and now both look to have gone off the boil, Cruz break down Mares in late rounds for TKO in fun fight but one that would have been better 12-24 month ago.

Cliff Rold (Santa Cruz Dec): I was riding with Mares from the time this was signed but there are some things that jump out on tape. Santa Cruz is taller, might be a hair quicker, and gets good extension on the jab. Couple that with his ability inside and greater work rate and this looks like a breakthrough night for the younger man.

Victor Salazar (Mares Dec): Curious case of Abner Mares not being the same and Leo Santa Cruz never fighting a really good fighter in his prime. Mares has and plenty of it, beating on the likes of Vic Darchinyan, Joseph Agbecko and Anselmo Moreno. Unfortunately for Mares, one left hook by Jhonny Gonzalez changed the course of his career. Santa Cruz meanwhile arrived on the scene blazing but fizzled out due to his lack of competition and being paid handsomely for it.

While this fight may have come a year too late, it still has action, intrigue, and fun written all over it. We find out if Mares is still good enough or if Santa Cruz is really the goods. I think style wise, Santa Cruz’ volume punching will give Mares problems but ultimately the more seasoned fighter will figure out a way to take Santa Cruz into deep waters and eke out a very close decision.

Reynaldo Sanchez (Santa Cruz UD): Mares looks to be in very good shape and very motivated for this fight. The last three Santa Cruz opponents were pathetic at 122 lbs. (and 124 lbs). Santa Cruz hasn't shown that he boasts the power to beat a guy like Mares. But, he has a pressure style and I think Mares will have some problems in this kind of fight. It will come down to who dictates the pace. I see Santa Cruz drawing Mares into his kind of fight, and take a close decision.

Alexey Sukachev (Santa Cruz TKO7): Santa Cruz is rightfully criticized for being milked with nonsense opponents - but at least he looked just about right while beating them. Mares, from what I saw, lost some steam after his first career loss. Younger and more confident Santa Cruz should get past Mares - not with ease but inside the distance after destroying Abner's body.

Mares–6; Santa Cruz–4

Facebook Page: JakeBScene