By Cliff Rold

A one-punch knockout can cloud the mind.

It is the most decisive finish in sport.  When it occurs, there is no doubt about the victor.  It leaves an impression so strong, so final, that it can obscure all the moments that lead up to it.

Carl Frampton landed a beautiful right hand to drop Kiko Martinez in the ninth round in February 2013.  Martinez beat the count but he was out on his feet and the fight was over.  It’s easy to forget what happened in the first eight rounds.

Sure, Frampton was winning, but it wasn’t easy.  Martinez doesn’t make it easy.  Ever pressuring, he comes to get his pound of flesh. 

Frampton might win again.  Martinez will be coming just like he did the first time.  Considering the hot streak Martinez has put together since their first encounter, this AWE afternoon edition (3:30 PM EST/12:30 PM PST) could be one of those awesome sequels that trumps the original.

No, it won’t be Godfather II.

It might be Lethal Weapon II.  That’s more than enough to be excited about.  Whose immunity will be revoked?

Let’s go the report card.

The Ledgers

Kiko Martinez

Age: 28

Title: IBF Super Bantamweight (2013-Present, 2 Defenses)

Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’3

Weight: TBA

Hails from: Alicante, Comunidad Valenciana, Spain

Record: 31-4, 23 KO, 1 KOBY


Record in Major Title Fights: 3-0, 3 KO

Rankings: #3 (BoxingScene, TBRB, Ring BoxRec), #4(ESPN)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 6 (Bernard Dunne TKO1; Takalani Ndlovu L12; Carl Frampton TKO by 9; Jhontan Romero TKO6; Jeffrey Mathebula KO9; Hozumi Hasegawa TKO7)

Vs.

Carl Frampton

Age: 27

Title/Previous Titles: None

Height: 5’5

Weight: TBA

Hails from: Belfast, Northern Ireland

Record: 18-0, 13 KO


Record in Major Title Fights: 1st Major Title Opportunity

Rankings: #1 (Ring), #2 (BoxingScene, TBRB), #3 (ESPN), #4 (BoxRec)

Current/Former World Champions/Titlists Faced: 3 (Steve Molitor TKO6; Kiko Martinez TKO9; Hugo Cazares KO2)

Grades

Pre-Fight: Speed – Martinez B-; Frampton B+

Pre-Fight: Power – Martinez B+; Frampton B+

Pre-Fight: Defense – Martinez C+; Frampton B

Pre-Fight: Intangibles – Martinez B+; Frampton B+

So far, we know more overall about Martinez as a fighter as the Spanish titlist has faced a broader range of fighters.  We also know, for now, that Frampton is the better of the two.  Martinez has a chance to prove that wrong but Frampton’s advantages haven’t changed.

The quicker man, of both hand and foot, Frampton has more wrinkles to his game than Martinez.  The Irishman is happy to come forward but he can also back off and box.  It was a counter punch that did Martinez in the first time.  Frampton’s ability to catch Martinez coming in was an asset even before the felling blow.

Martinez, while sometimes throwing shots from wide origins, is relentless and makes them count.  He creates leverage on his overhand right and in a regular body attack.  He gave Frampton issues in the first fight with both and just missed on some heavy lumber.  Can those near misses become scary connects this time?

He’ll certainly hope so. 

What Martinez has done since the first fight has to affect the mental approach.  Frampton knows he can win.  Martinez doesn’t, but he knows he rebounded.  He knows that he can take a knockout loss and come back to stop three good opponents in a row, all of them current or former titlists.  If that is enough to convince him he has answers the second time that he did not the first, along with not wanting to lose the belt he’s earned, Martinez will be a tough man to handle.

Also a possible factor will be the crowd.  Frampton hasn’t shown any shrinking from the lights at home in Northern Ireland.  He’s got his turf again and expectations will be the highest they’ve been.  Gamers rise to the occasion with new obstacles.  Frampton has been a gamer and so far his chin has stood up to the tests.

Defensively, the edge also goes to Frampton.  He moves his head and uses his feet to get in and out, though there are times he backs straight up.  If Martinez can time that, his right hand could force a price for the error.  Martinez can be tough to find as he swarms and gets low and is short even for 122 lbs.  If timed right, he’s wide open for power shots.  Martinez’s defense can’t be sacrificed for offense if he wants to leave with the same title he arrives with.

The Pick

Their first fight was more competitive than might be recalled.  Again, that's the power of a one-punch knockout.  Both men are improved over what they were a year ago.  Frampton has the education of the first Martinez fight and two more knockouts since. Martinez enters off the best trio of wins in his career.  Both are in their physical primes and their styles mesh well for action. There is every reason to believe we get another good fight.  We should also get a similar outcome.  With Northern Ireland behind him, Frampton stops Martinez again to win his first major title.  Martinez will be in his face and making him work for it every step of the way.

Cliff’s Notes…

In addition this excellent (US TV) afternoon fare, Saturday also has Juan Francisco Estrada-Giovani Segura on BeIn Sports Espanol…That show has its own report card, accessible on the main page…Showtime (9:25 PM EST) has a card as well on Saturday featuring Jr. Welterweights Lucas Matthysse (35-3, 33 KO) and Adrien Broner (28-1, 22 KO).  It would better if those two were fighting each other but at least neither is matched in a Danny Garcia-Rod Salka travesty…Matthysse will go to scratch with Mexican Roberto Ortiz (31-0, 24 KO) and this might be the action gem of the card.  Ortiz isn’t that quick, can be wild, and is making a huge step up in competition.  He can also crack and will have around a three-inch height advantage.  After Matthysse-Molina, another big punching foe should have everyone’s interest.  The pick is Matthysse by knockout in a fun fight…Broner continues his climb back from a Welterweight loss to Marcos Maidana with a step up from his last outing.  Emanuel Taylor (18-0, 12 KO) enters off a decent win over Karim Mayfield and has some talent.  It should be enough to give Broner rounds and maybe some technical difficulties in spots.  Broner still leaves with the duke, probably via decision.   

Cliff Rold is the Managing Editor of BoxingScene and a member of the Transnational Boxing Ratings Board and the Boxing Writers Association of America.  He can be reached at roldboxing@hotmail.com